HREC Investment Advisors

Truist met with Wyndham and Choice franchisees who had strong opinions about the merger and broad frustrations about brand costs and property valuation in limited service today.

The  DJIA  fell 285 points,  Nasdaq  was down 174, the  S&P 500  fell 38 points, and the 10-year treasury yield was down nearly .10 to 3.91%. Let’s hope the first two trading days do not represent the rest of the year. STR’s  global “bubble chart” update through December 16, 2023 showed 75% of markets with growth in RevPAR compared to 2019. Could there be a hotel building moratorium in one of the most popular areas of Southern Florida?

Major hospitality companies reported mixed trends at the Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference, with lodging demand remaining positive but margins affected by high wages. Several companies, including Crescent Hotels & Resorts and HHM Hotels, announced the addition of new properties to their portfolios. Evermore Orlando Resort is set to open a unique beach paradise, and other hotels are undergoing significant renovations and refurbishments, indicating a continued focus on luxury and expansion in the hospitality industry.

Truist remains optimistic about US hotel demand and RevPAR, favoring C-Corp stocks like HLT, MAR, and H, and recommending Hyatt and Ryman Hospitality among REITs. Hilton is expanding in Baja California, Mexico with Tapestry Collection hotels. Ashford Hospitality Trust faces lawsuits over loan defaults. Accor announced executive appointments and a new hotel in Poland with Allenort Group.

Choice Hotels has urged Wyndham Hotels to consider a merger, but Wyndham has firmly declined any interest in the proposal. The chairman of Wyndham revealed they almost acquired Choice Hotels 20 years ago. The U.S. construction pipeline shows growth, with over 5,700 projects and 672,000 rooms, driven by a strong upper midscale chain scale presence. Renovation and conversion projects are on the rise, and new hotel openings are expected to increase in the coming years. Several hotel and resort projects are underway, including Westin Washington, DC Downtown, Opry Entertainment Group’s renovation in Austin, Four Seasons expanding its Private Retreats collection, and Tommy Bahama’s debut resort in California. Additionally, new developments in Florida, Rhode Island, and Indiana are on the horizon.

The DJIA rose 205 points while Nasdaq was up 122, the S&P 500 rose 31 points and the 10 year treasury yield was flat at 4.84%. Lodging stocks were higher. We did see another new low…

DJIA fell 174 points, Nasdaq down 85, S&P 500 down 27, and 10-year treasury yield surged to 4.71%. Financial analysis by JP Morgan on Marriott Vacations Worldwide, noting risk factors and a Neutral rating. Acquisitions by Apple Hospitality REIT, renovations of Marriott properties, and promotions at Noble House Hotels & Resorts, KSL Resorts, JLL’s Value and Risk Advisory platform, and Auberge Resorts Collection.

CBRE U.S. Hotels State of the Union (October 2023) shows August RevPAR declined by -0.7%, with a -1.7% occupancy drop. Total revenue growth outpaced RevPAR growth in July by 2.5%. U.S. loan origination decreased, and hotel job openings continue to decline. Hotel rates are expected to rise globally in 2024, with potential increases of up to 17.5% in some cities, according to American Express Global Business Travel’s Hotel Monitor 2024. The Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index was down -2% in September. Year-to-date, the Hotel Brand sub-index increased by 23%, while the Hotel REIT sub-index decreased by -1.5%.

The DJIA ended its winning streak with a 237-point drop, Nasdaq was down 77, and the S&P 500 fell 29 points. The 10-year treasury yield surged by 0.16, closing at a yield of 4.01%. Wyndham reported positive results, with its development pipeline rising and a significant stock buyback. Accor raised its annual profit outlook despite being slightly below analyst expectations. Senators Klobuchar and Moran introduced the Hotel Fees Transparency Act , aiming to crack down on hidden resort fees. They propose federal guidelines for pricing transparency in hotel stays.

Choice Hotels to integrate nearly 600 Radisson Americas hotels onto its reservation delivery engine and loyalty program. Dauntless Capital Partners purchases Hilton Garden Inn Bethesda Downtown for immediate renovation. Excel Hotel Group plans to build a 130-room SpringHill Suites Hotel in Grover Beach, California.